Correction of Electoral Models in Chile and the Andes: Migrant Effect and the ECM as a Filter of Democratic Legitimacy

Author : Roberto F. Salazar-Córdova Date : July 2025 Abstract : This document presents an updated version of the General Policy Model for Latin America, with special emphasis on Chile. The model incorporates a corrective dimension (ECM – Error Correction Model) that reveals the hidden effect of migrant voting, especially in countries where undemocratic socialism has generated structural rejection. It is demonstrated that, unlike Venezuela or Bolivia, the ECM does not benefit the left in Chile, even when leading in polls. This paper supports the need to prioritize investments and strategic alliances in countries with a higher probability of pro-freedom stabilization during the 2025–2030 period. 1. General Policy Model: Base Structure Let: Vi : vote intention for candidate i Li : perceived leadership Fi : perception of legality Di : demand for institutional freedom Ti : communication traction (social media, technology) Ni : disruptive novelty Mi : conscious migration Ei : error or correction due to institutional/media apparatus 2. Activation of ECM (Error Correction Model) Let: Vi(PACES) : structural vote estimate under the PACES model Vi(polls) : polling-based vote estimate Ai : media/institutional apparatus supporting candidate i 3. New Variable: Migrant Awareness (Mi) This variable penalizes left-wing candidates in countries with a high migrant population that fled authoritarian socialism (e.g., Venezuela or Cuba). In Chile, this factor works against socialism and strengthens candidates with a narrative of economic freedom. 4. Chile 2025 Analysis Andes Democracy Conclusion : Although Jara leads in polls, she does not benefit from the ECM effect. Her narrative is traditional, not disruptive, and associated with discredited progressive governments. Therefore, the ECM tends to correct against her. 5. Strategic Implications for Investment in the Andes 2025–2030 Low-correction countries (strong apparatus + low freedom) : Venezuela, Bolivia. High-correction countries (free vote + migrant effect) : Chile, Ecuador, Panama. Recommendation : Prioritize investment in territories where the ECM is active in favor of economic and social freedom. Activate models like ADN@+6 and PACES in environments where institutional and migrant correction favors outcomes consistent with market stability. 6. Final Reflection The ECM allows for a proper reading of electoral scenarios when the conscious and free migrant voter is ignored by traditional parties. Chile proves that not everything that shines in polls turns to gold at the ballot box. The continent of freedom continues to correct itself from its migrant heart and its Andean peoples.